How to Do Horizon Scanning: A Step-by-Step Guide
Learn how to spot the emerging signals of change in your operating environment and future-proof your strategies.
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What is horizon scanning?
Horizon scanning, or environmental scanning, is a foresight method for identifying early signals of change. It’s a systematic, proactive approach that empowers organisations to not only anticipate and respond to future trends, but to actively shape them.
With horizon scanning, organizations can gain a strategic advantage, enabling them to:
Anticipate market shifts: Stay ahead of emerging changes in their industry or market.
Develop proactive strategies: Leverage upcoming opportunities or mitigate challenges before they fully materialize.
Influence market dynamics: Lead innovations that shape the direction of their field and maintain competitive advantages.
Address customer needs: Understand and cater to evolving customer demands more effectively.
Drive innovation: Foster innovative solutions that drive long-term growth and ensure that the organisation adapts to changing times, retaining its market position and relevance.
Getting started with horizon scanning
There isn't a universally accepted guideline for conducting horizon scanning, but a solid process should include these main steps:
Define the topic: Clearly articulate the topic or scope of interest to guide the scanning process.
Expand your perspective: Use a framework that broadens your view beyond familiar horizons.
Scan the environment: Identify trends, weak signals, and wild cards to gain insights into emerging changes in your landscape.
Below, we outline Futures Platform's methodology for horizon scanning. Our approach employs the 'foresight radar,' a widely-used tool among foresight professionals to collect, categorise and visualise future trends and phenomena of interest. However, you can also use simpler tools like pen and paper to get started.
1. Define your topic
Start by narrowing down your focus. We recommend doing this by crafting one to three research questions. Make it engaging: grab some pencils and paper. Begin by listing all the critical issues you should be aware of. From this list, identify a common theme that will help you formulate core questions.
Using a different coloured pencil, highlight recurring topics that appear across several items on your list. Refine these by identifying overarching themes connecting them.
With your shortlist ready, choose one to three topics and frame them as research questions, including a time frame (e.g., the year you want to focus on for your horizon scan). For instance, are you interested in consumer trends in the next few years, or do you want to explore structural changes in your industry that may take place by 2040? This primary research question will guide the remainder of your horizon scan.
An empty foresight radar — a starting point for horizon scanning
2. Broaden your view
A key goal of horizon scanning is to expand your perspective beyond your current focus. To do this effectively, you can use existing frameworks such as PESTE analysis to identify strategic issues relevant to your industry from multiple angles.
Next, label the sectors on your radar according to the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political themes, which will serve as sub-questions supporting your primary research question.
Foresight radar categorised into segments according to the PESTE framework
3. Scan the horizon
Now, search for phenomena related to each sector identified in the previous step. Aim to identify 6-12 different phenomena for your radar. Depending on your research question, here are a few ways how you can effectively search and identify these phenomena:
Industry reports and publications: Review recent industry reports, market research studies, government and nonprofit reports, and academic journals to to find early signals and statistical analyses.
News and media outlets: Monitor global and local news, opinion pieces, and business articles to spot emerging issues.
Expert opinions: Reach out to industry experts, thought leaders, and professionals in related fields for their perspectives on emerging trends and issues.
Social media and online communities: Observe discussions in online communities and social media platforms to identify potential early change signals and shifts.
Trend-tracking tools: Use online tools and databases like trend reports, patent databases, and financial analyses to identify weak signals and emerging patterns.
Brainstorming with your team: Organize collaborative brainstorming sessions where team members, each bringing their unique background and expertise, can share observations and potential phenomena. This diversity of perspectives broadens your focus, uncovering trends and insights that might otherwise go unnoticed.
Speed up your horizon scanning with Futures Platform
Access over 1500 trends, weak signals, and scenarios, analysed by professional futurists.
Foresight radar with identified future phenomena and trends
4. Assess and prioritise the identified phenomena with your team
Engage your team in evaluating the phenomena identified on your radar by having everyone vote for those they find most significant. After all votes are cast, eliminate phenomena with low vote counts from your radar.
Although the number of low-vote phenomena may vary from session to session, it's typical for around 10-20% to be removed at this stage.
Results table showing top voted future trends in Consumer Trends 2030
5. Answer your research question
Now, analyse each shortlisted phenomenon individually through the lens of your research question. Consider the following:
What insights can you uncover?
What implications does this phenomenon have for your business, team, or products?
What should you prepare for, and what opportunities can your organisation seize?
Involve your team in this phase as well by rating each phenomenon based on two critical criteria, such as timing and size, or technology fit and global/local relevance, as illustrated. This collaborative evaluation will help you gauge the potential impact and strategic significance of each phenomenon.
Future phenomena in consumer trends rated according to technological fit and local vs global impact
6. Formulate action steps
And you're done! This is a time-consuming but rewarding exercise. Regardless of the specific findings (which are often eye-opening), simply going through the process enhances your awareness of potential future changes, laying the groundwork for futures thinking in your organisation. This will significantly benefit your work environment, business perspectives, and strategic planning.
Usually, horizon scanning is the first step in foresight activities. You can further utilise the results that you’ve gathered, for example, in scenario building or test them with a broader audience by using the Delphi method.
Make horizon scanning a continuous activity with Futures Platform
A digital foresight platform where you can scan for emerging change signals, collaborate with your colleagues, visualise your results and document your process all in one place.
To stay ahead, organisations must widen their lens, exploring not just their own industry but what’s happening on the edges.