5 Trends Creating the City of the Future
It will be busier, smarter, and make us rethink our purpose.
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
Cities are one of the hallmarks of civilization. Their existence has allowed for the creation, storage, and passing of information throughout millennia. Without them, we wouldn't have had many of the political, scientific, artistic, and technological revolutions we've had over the years. But cities change. Indeed, the city of the future will quite certainly look different from the city of today. What are the phenomena changing the nature of today's cities?
5 TRENDS CREATING THE CITY OF THE FUTURE
Let’s be fair. The way cities in the future will look and behave isn’t just influenced by just 5 trends. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of trends. They are interconnected, causing one another and being caused by one another.
For that reason, it’s important to keep in mind that while this is an article about five main clusters of trends, they each count on, and are influenced by, a large number of other trends, sub-trends, and phenomena.
However, it is possible to take a more pragmatic approach and group them into larger mega-trends. The old wisdom of supply chain management – that aggregating quantities improves forecast accuracy – may well be applied here too. This bigger picture serves a good purpose. It allows us to form a grand vision of a plausible future, one important component of the practice of strategic foresight.
These future scenarios help us plan and prepare for what lies ahead, turning our teams and organizations into future-proof machines. So if you found, were sent to, or just stumbled upon this article, let’s make it useful. Here are 5 trends that are shaping the city of the future and redefining our roles in it.
1. Forget cities. Think Megacities.
Today, about 55% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. As more of the world develops, the number is expected to reach 70% by 2050. According to the United Nations, the largest urban growth will come from three countries: India, China, and Nigeria. So regular cities will become a little more like megacities.
Indeed, urbanization trends are already significant by themselves. But if predictions about the consequences of climate change come true, the significant growth of population in some cities could be even larger. As some areas around the globe are rendered uninhabitable, refugees could flock in large numbers to richer, safer, and better-prepared cities. Meaning that urbanization could be the only part responsible for a tremendous increase in megacities’ populations.
And while there is a timeless debate about the positives and negatives of such large-scale migration, there’s a much smaller one about what an increasing number of habitants would mean for a city According to the World Economic Forum, this is largely a good thing for cities themselves. Cities, as opposed to smaller towns and the countryside, require fewer resources per capita for areas such as infrastructure and services. And with Earth’s population on track to hit 9.7 billion by 2050, cities might be the only realistic housing solution.
On top of that, the WEF also argues that cities scale almost everything in a superlinear way. From wages to GDP to patents to R&D and more, cities “produce more units of output for each unit of input.”
So we can expect the city of the future to be more populous and better off. If you’re having difficulties imagining this, it’s simple. Just think of a lot more megacities like New York, Tokyo, or Shanghai.
A megacity is defined as a city that has a population in excess of 10 million people. Today, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company, around 8.2% of the world’s population (that’s roughly 600 million people) live in one of the 35 megacities located around the world. Together, they contribute to a staggering 14% of the world’s total GDP.
But 10 million is a number that perhaps does little justice to the real scale of change. Estimates by the Global Cities Institute of the University of Toronto put some cities like Lagos, in Nigeria, at over 80 million inhabitants. According to the same study, by 2075, the top 20 cities with the largest populations will come from the African continent, not Asia, Europe, or the Americas.
Demographic changes, therefore, represent one of the biggest trends shaping the city, or cities, of the future. These cities will not only be the beacons of civilization, our homes, but also the main engines of a rapidly changing world.
Discover what’s next for cities and assess the long-term global implications of the changing urban ecosystem with Urban Living & Construction 2040 research report made by leading futurists.
2. The Changing Nature of Work
The second big trend is the changing nature of work. How work gets done, where it gets done, and by whom.
First, by 2025, anyone who is entering the workforce at the age of 20 grew up their whole lives in the digital age. They will not know what life was like before smartphones, apps, and ultra-fast internet connections.
The implications are significant. Growing up in a mobile world creates new expectations of what work should look like. A digitally connected world allows anyone with a laptop and a mobile phone to work from their home or their favourite vacation spot.
According to Medium, while in 2007 only 9% of Americans reported working remotely, today 43% of Americans report doing so part of the time. This trend is not exclusive to the US. These changes mean work is becoming more mobile, spread out, and on employees’ own terms. Organizations that fail to adapt will find themselves struggling to acquire and retain talent.
With the advent of self-driving cars and other futuristic technologies, “on the go” will become the new norm. People won’t be expected to come into the office more than a few times per week – if that. Meetings can be conducted in vehicles, shared office spaces, and elsewhere. Some may even be conducted virtually, not on a laptop or personal computer, but on a VR headset.
Second, despite mobility being a big factor in the way work will look in the future, it is not the only one. With AI creeping into more and more jobs, the work we do will continue to change and adapt. There is a lot of debate around what the future of employment will look like. Attempts to institute UBI (universal basic income), should they be successful, paint the picture of a future city where much of the work done is towards our dreams and interests, rather more basic needs. While still far in the future, such a state of affairs would imply a happier population with more free time on their hands. This would undoubtedly force many of us to rethink the purpose in our lives.
What does this mean for cities? What does it mean to have more free time on your hands or to turn to focus on your passions instead of work? According to some, it could result in increased creativity, research, and entrepreneurship. While some contest that’s the case, some of these trends have already been set in motion. The cementation of entrepreneurship as a viable career could become even more relevant in this scenario. Walking around the city, we could expect more small-scale entrepreneurs, a wider variety of products and services, and a generally more creative society.
Third, it is not just for individuals that work will change. The face and inner workings of the industry will, too.
As cities grow in population, and productivity goes up, industry clusters are likely to become more prominent. This is not new, and we already see this in action: New York and London for finance, “Silicon Valley” for startups, and Busan for shipping are just examples. With digitalization, these clusters will grow in importance, and “the gravitational pull of cities will only grow stronger.” The question you may ask now is: what cluster or clusters will be formed in your city?
3. Digitization Changing Governance
Another factor contributing to a vastly different city of the future is digitization. Many factors such as the internet and social media are already changing the way governments work, communicate, and take care of their citizens. But there’s room for more.
Digitization will have a big impact in the way governance works. According to McKinsey, only 40% of European citizens access online government services. And Europe can is considered to be ahead of the curve. In the consulting company’s estimates, investing in government digitization could free up about 1 trillion dollars annually in economic value across the world.
Some countries and cities have already begun working hard to make this happen.
The small Baltic country of Estonia is perhaps one of the best examples of a digital strategy that will eventually be adopted by most cities. Through its online government e-services, people can fill out tax forms, vote in national elections, and sign all sorts of contracts. Digitalization is enabling citizens to handle all their government-related chores simply and quickly. McKinsey also cites the example of Panama, where one can register a business in just 15 minutes – a process that used to take 5 days. Whether it’s voting on regional elections, starting a new business, accessing health services or filling tax forms, the days of long, boring processes are counted.
Cities are especially well positioned for this, given the amount of data they collect, their digital capabilities, and the benefits that accrue from pushing for e-governance. Doing so can save time, money, and increase productivity.
Citizens will also be more involved in the decision-making taking place in cities. As Duch and Ricart, of IESE Business School, say, the development of new digital technologies and tools allows governments to take more “open approaches to participatory democracy, making the ability to reach out to citizens easier, cheaper, and more effective than ever before.” Today, with the internet, social media, and other tools, city governments can already reach out to the people they serve and get almost instant feedback on their policies or ideas waiting to be implemented.
In the future, this will be even more prevalent. Duch and Ricart provide examples of city reporting apps that already exist in Seattle and Johannesburg. Bearing similar names, “Find it, Fix it” and “Find and Fix” respectively, these apps allow cities to report graffiti, abandoned cars, potholes, etc., immediately to the government. Using the phones’ locations and the issue reported, city officials can then find and identify the problems, and work to solve them.
Another example of participatory democracy can be found in Berlin and Madrid. Through the online service “Decide Madrid,” for example, citizens can send the government ideas or proposals that then go through votes. You can see this in practice on this page, with the current proposals and votes for each.
These two examples are a good illustration of the power of technology and digitization to transform the way governance in cities operates. The city of the future will count on these and more. In most cities, citizens and governments will work hand-in-hand to advance policies, make improvements, and solve problems.
This will require city governments to become more agile and relinquish some of their power to citizens. These instant feedback loops and higher rates of participation in policies by citizens also mean governments will have to begin seeing their citizens more as businesses currently see customers. They will expect to be listened to, catered to, and get what they pay for. Policymakers that can’t adapt will be put out of business, as happens in the private sector.
But it doesn’t stop there. As cities grow and develop, and digitization diffuses, transparency and accountability will also increase. The advent of the internet and social media platforms has already resulted in greater accountability for those who lead us. With more and more information being turned into 1s and 0s, there’s no reason to expect this accountability to stop growing.
In short, in the city of the future, e-governance will play a big role. From filing taxes, starting businesses, and signing contracts online to voting in elections, reporting issues, and taking an active role in politics, it will all be done through online platforms. This will make cities more efficient and agile organized bodies, further fuelling their influence in global growth.
4. Mobility. Done differently.
Something else that will look quite different in the city of the future is mobility. This should come as no surprise to anyone, having seen the recent developments in automated cars and trucks, ride-sharing services, and electric vehicles. We are now in the early stages of large-scale developments that will alter the face of transportation in the city of the future.
First, let’s start will self-driving vehicles. Some already travel our roads, but the ecosystem is nowhere near its full potential. There is still a lot of regulation surrounding the development of this new technology and problems to fix. But, generally, it’s government policy that catches up to advances in technology, and not the other way around. So we can expect self-driving vehicles to be ubiquitous in the future.
For example, Singapore and Finland have already publicly announced plans to have self-driving buses in cities very soon. According to the Singaporean Strait Times, students at the Nanyang Technological University will soon be able to move around campus on self-driving buses. Just one of these buses would ferry around 300 passengers in a single day. In the Finnish capital Helsinki, there’s a self-driving bus too. Projected to begin full service in 3 years, and operated by Helsinki RobobusLine, this bus has already begun its tests, and it won’t be long until it’s ready for operation. These are just two examples of how automation is changing the face of public transport. Add to that private transport, and you have a real revolution.
Then there’s more: The evolution and adoption of ride-sharing services. Companies like Uber, Lyft, and Carma Carpooling are decreasing the need for car ownership. Ride-sharing is already a prevailing phenomenon, but with the market expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.88% between 2022-2026, in the US alone, this new form of transportation is only going to increase in importance. These services, and others similar, suggest that in the city of the future, car ownership will become significantly less necessary. Instead, we will be relying on multi-modal modes of transportation: from bicycles to other people’s self-driving cars, to the city’s self-driving buses, metros, and trains.
And maybe even… flying cars?
While it is hard to imagine a city of the future without flying cars, forever depicted in utopian and dystopian sci-fi moves alike, this is likely still quite far away. If that. Nevertheless, it’s not only private companies eyeing some of this. It’s governments too.
It was last year that we first heard of Dubai’s air taxi. Able to reach speeds of almost 100 km/h and fly over distances of 30 km, this air taxi was created by the company Volocopter, can carry up to 2 passengers, and offers a smoother and quieter ride than a helicopter. According to the company, the objective is to have it (literally) up and running within 5 years in Dubai.
There hasn’t been too much news recently on the air taxi’s developments, but it does exemplify some of the big changes that may be to come. Other big ones include the development of new underground modes of transportation, such as the Hyperloop. While it faces regulatory and engineering obstacles, it could provide a good alternative to current problems in traffic congestion. With city populations growing, and more and more megacities emerging, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has recently claimed it could be a good solution to the current problem of transportation being two-dimensional. In other words, as cities grow upwards, we still only have transportation on mostly a single level – roads. With solutions like the Hyperloop, we could have them on 3D levels – multiple levels underground. Thus freeing up traffic and enabling higher mobility.
In the city of the future, one day you might have to go to a meeting in the company’s headquarters, and you might have your home control system call up a self-driving car. The car company, or individual, will know what system made the call and will charge you automatically. You might then get on a self-driving bus, which recognizes your face and bills you, making your public transport passes no longer necessary. Then you’ll go down to level three of the Hyperloop system, take a quick ride to a nearby city, and head up straight to the office. If you want to appreciate the views a little, on the way home you might take an air taxi – maybe a little more expensive, but worth it.
The city of the future, therefore, might allow us to move around with much more ease and much more efficiently. These developments provide governments and private companies with new incentives and opportunities to improve mobility all around. It will be multi-modal, seamless, safe, and work almost flawlessly. This will in turn result in higher productivity, mobility, and growth.
5. Changing Infrastructure
A 5th profound change, concluding this list of 5, comes in the form of infrastructure. Driven by an increase in connectivity, digitization, mobility, and demographics, our buildings, roads, and public spaces will look very different going forward.
For one thing, developments in renewable technologies are likely to have a profound impact on cities’ landscapes. For instance, according to CityMetric, South Korea is already planning an entire network of “smart roads” by 2020. On top of that, big data, IoT, and other growing trends are bound to change the way cities make decisions and optimize their environments.
Another example of how AI and connectivity may change infrastructure can be found in traffic lights. As cities grow and mobility patterns shift, it’s not unthinkable to imagine street light systems that use machine learning to better guide traffic, automatically adjusting to times of higher or lower traffic. One way they will do this is by communicating with the onboard software systems found in cars. In public spaces, too, these systems may dictate lighting output for instance, thus allowing for energy savings. This will be driven by the growing trends of big data, IoT, and the crowdsourcing of data, and these are bound to change the way cities make decisions and optimize their environments.
Businesses, too, won’t have to adapt solely to changing consumer needs in front-end products and services. Their entire supply chains are in the crosshairs of change. One of the biggest ones is in the area of logistics, namely in ports and warehouses. As Frank Kho, a member of the Port 2060 Think Tank says, “[…]the possibilities that digitalisation, data and software will provide, will have a fundamental impact on the global trade and logistics ecosystem.”
Cargotec, the Finnish cargo-handling machinery company, paints the picture: By 2060, the city of the future may not count on the presence of ports. Mega ports could be built offshore, on artificial islands created with the specific purpose of optimizing traffic and operations. Shipping containers, while they will remain largely unchanged aesthetically, will have built-in intelligent systems that allow them to communicate “destination, contents and journey details.” These smart containers will also be smart while on ships at sea. Future capabilities would allow them to separate from their ship and join another, on their way to their destinations. All this done, of course, with very little human help, as the shipping industry is one of the most prone to automation.
Finally, as the costs of solar power are brought down, roofs, backyards, and large portions of land might soon become filled with solar panels. Although their scalability might be limited within cities, as there are better places to put them in order to maximize their efficiency, there are other green trends shaping the aesthetic of the future city.
For instance, last year Singapore announced the intention to double its high-rise greenery coverage. In other words, double the amount of “green spaces” in the city’s skyscrapers. At the moment, the city-state counts approximately 100 hectares of high-rise greenery – equivalent to 100 football fields. According to the Singaporean Urban Redevelopment Authority, “greenifying” high-rise buildings will not only make buildings look better, but also provide people passing by with a visual relief and cool down the city temperature. According to a city official, “love for greenery is now core to Singapore’s national identity.”
Whether functional, aesthetic, or both, infrastructure in the city of the future won’t stand alone.
As Futurism mentions, future cities will possess fully integrated infrastructure, made up of “internet and communication systems, water services, and electrical and power grids all connected and unified.” Bridges, underground tunnels, buildings, roads, water systems, electric systems, and all other infrastructure will be connected through IoT. This presents yet another set of opportunities for those in construction, city planning, and services. But equally important is defence. As we increase the connectivity of our cities, we also make them more likely to be a target of cyberattacks. Hence, in the build-up to the ultra-connected city of the future, anticipating potential threats will be of utmost importance.
But potential threats won’t stop current development. According to a report by Global Infrastructure Basel, 75% of the infrastructure that will be present in cities in 2050 doesn’t exist today. This means there is plenty of opportunity, for businesses, governments, and citizens, to influence the trajectory of their cities’ infrastructure.
THE CITY OF THE FUTURE
While no one can predict the future with a very high degree of certainty, current and future trends, in addition to expected phenomena, can point us to several plausible futures. To truly be able to visualize the city of the future, one needs appropriate foresight progress.
At Futures Platform, we use an in-house foresight process (you can download the eBook here) that allows us to scout, identity, and understand trends and phenomena. From there, our process analyzes and classifies the data, allowing us to see multiple plausible futures on a foresight radar.
Our foresight radar shows that the city of the future will be busy, smart, and automated. It also shows that our role in them might look quite unrecognizable in the years to come. Our work will not only be more mobile. It will also rest on different principles.
As large cities grow and prosper, resource scarcity and the need to work for basic needs won’t be the driving force behind our efforts any longer. That means that both the government and the private side will have to carefully balance progress with meaning, should they want to achieve both economic and societal prosperity.
If you are interested to visit the radar and discover 900+ phenomena disrupting all industries: Sign-in into Futures Platform.
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