Four scenarios on the future of megacities
By 2100, all of the world's 20 largest megacities will be located in the developing world, with the majority in Africa. What implications will this shift have for the future of the global economy, climate, and the welfare of these urban populations?
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When we think of megacities today, Tokyo, New York, or Shanghai are typically the first names that come to mind. But by 2100, cities like Lagos, Kinshasa and Dar Es Salaam are poised to claim the spotlight. As urbanisation in Africa and Asia skyrockets, cities face the immense challenge of scaling up infrastructure and services at a matching pace.
While they’re not an exhaustive list of all the possible future directions, the four scenarios below analyse pivotal trajectories that could shape the future of urbanisation in the decades ahead, providing a strategic lens for organisations to explore the diverse ways the future might unfold.
In our scenario-building process, we focused on the following set of key driving forces that will influence the future development of megacities:
Housing prices in cities
Structural changes in employment
Birth rates
Increasing educational attainment
Development in transportation technologies
Climate change
Pro-urbanisation policies
In each scenario, we examine the different ways these drivers may evolve in the years ahead, as well as the different ways they may interact and influence each other. All four scenario descriptions also include a development timeline section, which lists three to six steps that could plausibly happen to move us closer to the given scenario. The purpose of this section is to give readers a list of signs and indicators to look out for when monitoring future developments.
Learn more about our scenario-building method here.
Scenario 1: Highly developed megacities become epicentres of global economic activity
Through proactive policies, many of the emerging economies have achieved accelerating social, economic, technological, and educational progress and built affluent, highly developed urban hubs. Several megacities around the world are now magnets for new businesses and investments.
Despite declining birth rates, a steady influx of migrants keeps the urban heartbeat strong. These newcomers, more educated than ever, integrate easily into the workforce with the support of well-functioning infrastructures and talent attraction programs in place.
As the world grapples with the dual challenges of climate change and urban sprawl, these megacities are at the forefront of developing sustainable innovations. In transportation, self-driving cars and shared ownership models are integrated into the urban lifestyle with effective city planning. The enormous energy demand in megacities has spurred sustainable and efficient energy solutions. Megacities are also pioneers in embracing the circular economy, drastically reducing waste and urban pollution.
While the cost of living, particularly housing, remains steep in cities, the gap between the developed and developing world is narrowing, signalling a global shift towards economic parity.
Development path for scenario 1
2027: Emerging economies are witnessing a significant surge in education and productivity levels.
2030: Urban planners globally are pioneering the expansion of circular and sharing economies, marking a new era in sustainable urban development.
2032: Birth rates are declining in megacities worldwide, yet employment figures are on an upward trajectory.
2035: Megacities across Asia, Africa, and South America are actively showcasing their progress to attract investments and residents.
2040: The once-dominant economic centres of the developed world are steadily losing their competitive advantage to the emerging megacities of the developing world, which have transformed into progressive hubs of commerce and innovation.
2050: The most developed among these megacities have outpaced the world's largest national economies, emerging as global centres of economic activity and political power.
2060: Several megacities declare themselves independent states.
Scenario 2: Unchecked urban growth leads to the formation of mega-slums around the largest megacities
In developing countries, rapid population growth propels a migration wave towards urban areas, resulting in the expansion of slums around megacities and deepening socioeconomic inequalities.
These megacities face a multitude of challenges: an influx of a largely uneducated rural population, coupled with high birth rates, exacerbates issues like pollution, the spread of diseases, water shortages, escalating crime rates, and widespread unrest.
Public officials and urban planners struggle to effectively address these concerns, leading to a vicious cycle of economic stagnation and persistent poverty. Despite the high birth rates driving continuous population growth towards these cities, their economic attractiveness diminishes. This economic downturn results in rising unemployment and further poverty, perpetuating the cycle of decline. As a result, the once-promising prospects of the global megacities become overshadowed by the compounding pressures of overcrowding and limited resources.
Development path for scenario 2
2028: The trend of declining population growth rates begins to reverse in several developing regions.
2030: The rate of slummification escalates sharply, though it is largely overlooked by politicians in developing nations.
2035: Foreign direct investments in developing regions see a sharp decrease as confidence in the sustainable growth of megacities wanes.
2040: Deteriorating health conditions, escalating waste and heat issues, water scarcity, crime, and riots contribute to an unprecedented number of annual deaths across global megacities.
2050: The world’s five largest megacities are now encircled by vast and tumultuous mega-slums, with each city's population exceeding the 40 million mark.
Scenario 3: Excessive political push for urbanisation creates artificial and dysfunctional megacities
In the pursuit of global competitiveness, politicians in emerging economies aggressively champion urbanisation, despite the climbing costs of construction materials. However, this rush towards urban growth outpaces the progress in education levels and the necessary evolution in employment structures. As urban areas expand and people flock from rural regions, the unintended consequences become glaringly evident: housing prices skyrocket and unemployment rates in megacities soar, laying the groundwork for a potential real estate bubble.
As a result, megacities become increasingly dysfunctional and expensive. Due to inadequate welfare and essential services, societal problems, such as health issues and social isolation, become prevalent among their populations. Betting on a continuous boom, the global north keeps pouring investments into these rapidly growing megacities, which only amplifies the eventual fallout. When the real estate bubble inevitably bursts, it triggers a domino effect: the banking sector plunges into disarray, sparking a global financial crisis that leads to a worldwide recession.
Development path for scenario 3
2025: Ukraine's reconstruction accelerates, driving construction material prices to unprecedented levels.
2026: Despite rising construction costs and market bubble concerns, China's real estate market continues to expand, with aims to double its urbanisation rate.
2027: The availability and quality of education are declining sharply worldwide, particularly in developing nations.
2028: Global competition and political backing fuel a worldwide urbanisation surge, pushing housing prices to new peaks. Yet, the outlook for construction investments remains optimistic.
2030: The United Nations declares its Sustainable Development Goal for education by 2030 unsuccessful.
2032: The real estate sector shows widespread signs of stagnation. The collapse of several Chinese real estate funds triggers financial chaos, leading to a global recession.
Scenario 4: High-speed transport and improved digital connectivity fuel rural revival
Climate-friendly transportation innovations gain momentum worldwide, drastically cutting down commute times and reducing the appeal of living in densely populated urban centres. This trend, alongside the rise of remote work and improved internet access in rural areas, is shifting the gravitational pull away from megacities. Investment is now flowing towards enhancing infrastructure in less developed rural regions, lessening the reliance on congested slums and dense, skyscraper-dominated cityscapes.
Consequently, rural areas are witnessing a renaissance, evolving into thriving communities that present a compelling alternative to city life. In addition to promoting more sustainable living environments, the shift to rural lifestyles also bridges the economic gap between urban and rural regions, paving the way for a more equitable future.
Development path for scenario 4
2025: Remote working continues to gain traction, solidifying its place as a lasting trend beyond the pandemic.
2028: Several significant breakthroughs in high-speed transportation technology are achieved by researchers.
2030: India, China, the US, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria invest heavily in these high-speed transport innovations, seeking to connect mid-sized and major cities.
2035: Megacities in China and India become forerunners in enhancing urban public transport systems and halting the expansion of slums at the city outskirts.
2040: The rate of urbanisation and the growth of inequality have notably slowed, and rural areas around the world, particularly in Asia, experience rapid development.
