City States – The Wave of the Future?
The current trends of urbanisation, local manufacturing, and indoor farming give cities a new-found power.
FUTURE PROOF-BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
Looking at human history, nation-states are a recent invention. Thousands of years ago, the political and economic powers laid within the border of cities: Athen and Sparta in Greece, Babylon in Mesopotamia, Tyre city in ancient Lebanon, and Rome of the ancient Roman Kingdom.
Nowadays, we have Singapore, Monaco, and the Vatican as the modern independent city-states; whereas cities such as Hong Kong, Macau, and Dubai are autonomous cities - independently functioning with their own governments but are still part of larger nations.
It seems difficult to imagine a world without countries, but with the rising level of political and economic anxiety, there are talks of demanding independence for major cities.
Is the city-state the future?
To begin to understand this trend, we need to take a look back at the beginning of nation-states. The modern nation-state system was the consequence of the industrial revolution and imperialism expansions during the 18th and 19th centuries.
As the industrial revolution made production and transportation more accessible, societies started to become more complex, and centralised bureaucracies grew to manage them. Revolutions in France and the United States also helped to create the “national interest” ideology with a unified language, culture, and identity.
But the nation-state with its border, centralised governments, and sovereign authorities is becoming increasingly obsolete in the new digital world. The internet heralded a new borderless, free, and identity-less era. The birth of globalisation stripped away the nation-state’s sole power to enforce change.
Companies and organisations are international, and challenges like climate change, immigration, pandemic, and international crime are all beyond a single nation-state’s abilities. And with the waning power of the nation-state, it looks like the city-state is making a comeback. Unlike nation-states, city-states have the conditions to thrive in an international, highly connected world.
Cities are centres of commerce, growth, innovation, technology, and finance. They also have more political flexibility to adapt to global challenges than nations. For example, many cities take individual initiatives to combat climate change as the impacts of rising temperatures can be felt differently and with greater intensity in urban areas.
Discover insights on 40+ more urban living trends with our in-depth foresight report Futures of Urban Living & Construction 2040.
Political anxiety is one of the main reasons behind the rebirth of the city-state
In 2016, just one week after Britain voted to leave the European Union, protesters in London demanded the city to become independent and rejoin the EU as a city-state, with more than 180,000 Londoners signing a petition asking London Mayor Sadiq Khan to declare London independent. And three years after the referendum, a newly established anti-Brexit party has urged backers to vote for London’s separation from the rest of the UK.
The example of London suggests that political anxiety and a feeling of disillusionment with nationwide policies might be one of the key reasons why people start to identify more with the city live in. Megacities that have an international outlook, like London, might find their interests at odds with the rest of the country, which may have a stronger focus on domestic affairs.
At the moment, London is the first megacity where demands for independence have been voiced out loud. But with a rising level of political anxiety, there is no telling that other cities will not do the same in the future. But what gives cities the possibility to become self-governing and sustain themselves? There are a few reasons.
With rapid urbanisation, cities wield the ultimate economic power
In the last five decades, urbanisation has accelerated fast. According to a report by PwC, more than half of the population lives in urban areas, and 1.5 million more people are moving to the cities every week. Most of this growth (90%) takes place in cities in Africa and Asia, where fewer and fewer jobs are available in the countryside. By 2050, it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities.
Cities also wield the ultimate economic power. In 2015, cities generated more than 80% of the global GDP. All of the world’s largest financial institutions are located in 9 major cities (London, Singapore, New York, Zurich, Hong Kong, Chicago, Tokyo, Frankfurt, and Shanghai).
As urbanisation grows, there’s more pressure on central governments to create sustainable development solutions for infrastructure, services, job creation, and the environment. Cities are also likely to start acting more independently to look after the interests of their growing residents.
Rise of local manufacturing enables self-sufficiency
As cities became densely populated and diverse, a new trend has also started to emerge among city dwellers: producing and consuming things locally. This hyper-localisation originates from both ethical and ecological ethos. After the global financial crisis in 2008, the desire to be less reliant on multinational conglomerates has turned people toward their neighbours and local communities. Some examples of hyper-localisation are the DIY (do it yourself) culture, custom-designed products (crafts, 3D printed designs) and urban farming.
The growing trend of hyper-localisation has the potential to make cities self-sufficient, which may, in turn, further weaken cities’ connection to the surrounding countryside. In addition to self-sufficiency, local farming and manufacturing of goods can also strengthen the feeling of belonging among urban dwellers by promoting the idea of sharing and participating in community-building.
New indoor agriculture methods, circular economy and rapid recycling are all developments that make self-sufficient cities possible. Provided that these new technologies are developed and scaled extensively enough, the cities of the future can be increasingly self-sufficient in their food, water, and energy production.
What will the future of city-states look like?
If the demands for city-states become widespread, the unity of nation-states will be in jeopardy. Initially, central governments might try to prevent cities from gaining too much power. Still, it may prove to be a futile attempt given the significant economic, cultural and political influence of cities. Many countries might develop towards becoming a federation where the cities act as independent states, with a common central government directing the foreign and defence policies on their behalf.
On a global scale, the emergence of a large number of new de facto independent city-states could create both positive and negative possibilities. The most significant outcome would be heightened competition between these city-states, as there would be no centralised government to redistribute wealth from wealthier to less fortunate areas. For this reason, cities would likely have a strong incentive to create a very business-friendly and affluent atmosphere to attract investment and economic growth.
The dissolution of regulations enforced by nation-states would create additional room for innovation, potentially leading to agile and creative cities that could revitalise the global economy. Such cities could make trade more accessible and less reliant on nation-level politics, spurring economic growth and cooperation.
In the best-case scenario, well-governed city-states would have practical and lenient regulations that foster vibrant business and artistic communities, positioning them as successful and prosperous cities. On the other hand, poorly governed cities may devolve into fiefdoms of corrupt politicians or even dictatorships, leaving them struggling to maintain stability and progress.
Various cities would also become hubs for artistic and cultural endeavours. By having more significant independence than before, cities could decide to focus on becoming the centre of some specific cultural industry. Politically, some cities would also feature various political doctrines, and some of them could be ruled by very idealistic, visionary, or downright utopia-minded leaders, leading to experimental governmental structures and legislation.
How likely are city-states to become a reality?
Even though the city-state movement is gaining momentum, it is improbable that the nation-state system will collapse anytime soon. Furthermore, not all countries would be necessarily impacted by the emergence of city-states. In countries where the development disparities between urban and rural areas are most prominent, cities would benefit most from independence.
One of the more problematic aspects of the city-states would be the difficulty of creating and implementing international treaties of any kind. If the number of independent states rises massively, the collective ability to come up with universally accepted norms or agreements could be hampered significantly.
At the moment, cities don’t have adequate infrastructure, services, job creation, climate, and environment to accommodate the migration of 200,000 people a day from the countryside. This problem may only get worse if cities become independent.
EXPLORE THE FUTURE OF CITIES WITH FUTURES PLATFORM
While it may seem unlikely at the moment, the change drivers that could give rise to independent cities are already there, and they’re gradually gaining momentum.
Picture a world where cities are independent regulatory bodies: Would it be a more peaceful and harmonious place without the tensions of nation-states, or a chaotic mess with no clear direction? And most importantly: what will such a future mean to you and your organisation?
