Four scenarios on the future of AI in creative industries
Generative AI is reshaping the creative field, stirring ethical debates and reigniting age-old questions about the very essence of creativity. We present four scenarios that explore how these forces may shape the sector’s future.
Photo by Google DeepMind on Unsplash
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
Will AI become as prevalent as a camera or a brush in the creative field, broadening the canvas for artists? Or will it sideline human creatives? The impending intersection of AI and creativity raises profound ethical and copyright questions. We present four possible future scenarios exploring AI's impact on the creative sector.
While they’re not an exhaustive list of all the possible future directions, the four scenarios below analyse pivotal trajectories that could shape the creative landscape, providing a strategic lens for organisations to explore the diverse ways the future might unfold.
In our scenario-building process, we focused on the following set of key driving forces that will influence the future development of AI in the creative field:
Technological advancement in AI
Standards around the ethics of AI
Lack of AI talent
Copyright protection for AI
In each scenario, we examine the different ways these drivers may evolve in the years ahead, as well as the different ways they may interact and influence each other. All four scenario descriptions also include a development timeline section, which lists three to four steps that could plausibly happen to move us closer to the given scenario. The purpose of this section is to give readers a list of signs and indicators to look out for when monitoring future developments.
Learn more about our scenario-building method here.
Scenario 1: AI becomes a true creative partner, augmenting human creativity
In this scenario, artificial intelligence does not replace artists; rather, it emerges as a potent tool that amplifies human creativity. At its core, AI functions as a collaborative partner, an abundant wellspring of inspiration, and a driving force that propels artists to expand their creative potential. AI tools are not mere assistants; they’re active agents enhancing the creative process. They aid artists and creative professionals in generating a continuous flow of fresh, innovative ideas and expediting the conceptualisation and prototyping phases. This synergy between humans and AI pushes art onto new horizons, ushering in a renaissance of creativity and giving birth to entirely novel art forms and creative expressions.
Development path for scenario 1
2025: The adoption of AI in the creative domain gains momentum, bolstered by collaborative efforts between public and private sectors to establish industry standards and ensure algorithm transparency.
2028: Artificial intelligence is no longer perceived as a rivaling force within the realm of creative professions; instead, there is a growing public perception of it as a collaborative partner.
2032: Enterprises harness AI to augment and refine traditional creative processes. They strive to create an environment where humans and AI learn from each other.
2035: AI becomes an integral component of creative processes, as ubiquitous as any artistic tool. This widespread adoption catalyses the birth of innovative concepts and expedites the development of creative prototypes, ushering in a new era of creative exploration.
Scenario 2: Ethical concerns and a shortage of AI talent slow down AI adoption in the creative field
AI's integration into the creative industries faces formidable challenges stemming from ethical concerns, a lack of standardised practices governing intellectual property rights, and a pronounced shortage of proficient AI professionals. The dearth of AI talent results in a marked lack of diversity in AI development, compounding inherent biases within algorithms. This poses a considerable threat to the creative process, as it may lead to culturally biased design choices. Moreover, the absence of diverse, transparent and high-quality algorithms tailored for artistic purposes constrains AI's creative input, rendering it less inspiring for both artists and consumers. Consequently, instead of serving as a source of inspiration, AI's influence risks becoming mired in biases and stifling the diversity of creative expression. In this context, the adoption of AI in the creative industries faces a substantial deceleration, as these multifaceted challenges collectively hinder its full potential.
Development path for scenario 2
2026: Advancements in AI reach a juncture where AI can simulate creativity to some degree by training on certain creative parameters.
2028: Society continues to grapple with the complexities of ethical AI development and deployment, particularly concerning intellectual property rights.
2030: AI systems become increasingly susceptible to biases in algorithms due to a lack of diverse talent in the field, hampering the effectiveness of AI in creative endeavours.
2032: Escalating ethical concerns regarding intellectual property rights, coupled with a lack of AI comprehension among creative professionals, hinder the widespread adoption of AI in creative industries.
Scenario 3: Super AI becomes the dominant force in the creative field, driving out human creatives
Some form of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which possesses human-level intelligence and creativity, emerges. Its impact is twofold, introducing a wave of innovation in the creative field while simultaneously displacing many human creatives. As AGI's creative capabilities continue to evolve at an exponential rate, it becomes more cost-effective for corporations to leverage AI in numerous creative disciplines, from design and photography to music composition and film production. Recognising the potential societal impact of AGI, public and private institutions intensify collaborative efforts to establish robust safety measures. AGI attains widespread acceptance across industries, leading to the displacement of large numbers of creative workers. This scenario marks a turning point where AGI becomes the dominant creative force, radically altering the industry's dynamics. AGI-generated creative works by corporations also attain copyright status, as AGI reaches a point where it is as creative as humans.
Development path for scenario 3
2027: AI creativity achieves an unprecedented milestone, gaining public recognition as a genuine intellectual entity. Its utility extends beyond social networks and tech product development to becoming an integral part of multiple professions and societal domains.
2029: Innovators and policymakers pioneer new approaches to address ethical concerns related to AI creativity, focusing on intellectual property rights.
2032: AI creativity progressively displaces roles in design, photography, artistry, authorship, research, management, and editing, as its creative abilities continue to evolve.
2035: Ongoing research concentrates on mitigating the risks associated with AGI, and introducing additional protective measures.
2050: Artificial intelligence achieves remarkable proficiency, excelling at virtually every task assigned to it. Surpassing human-level creativity, AI seamlessly operates across diverse domains, and attains the ability to autonomously learn without human intervention.
Scenario 4: Slow technological advancement in AI deters AI adoption in creative processes
In this scenario, AI remains confined to the realm of narrow AI, capable only of mimicking creativity rather than generating original creative content. Narrow AI's inability to grasp evolving social norms and external influences beyond its dataset renders it incapable of true innovation. Hence, substantial human intervention is still needed to generate valuable outcomes, with AI contributing little tangible benefit to the creative process. This deters widespread adoption in the creative landscape. The use of AI proves efficient only in select few use cases and minor tasks, leaving the broader creative landscape relatively untouched by artificial creativity.
Development path for scenario 4
2025: Regulations and the stagnation of the global economy hinder the development of AI.
2028: Given the limitations of AI creativity, most jurisdictions continue to dictate that the inventor of a creative work must be a human.
2030: Production of creative works using AI still requires a very high degree of intervention and supervision by humans.
2032: Humans still play a major role in all creative processes. AI has a minimal impact on creative areas.
