Four scenarios on the future of digital privacy
Will the trade-off between privacy and convenience become the norm in our digitised future? Or will people reclaim control, heralding a new era for the internet?
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From tech giants facing increasing regulatory heat to Gen Z ditching smartphones for flip phones, the internet’s power dynamics may be in for a reshuffle. As people demand more privacy and less algorithmic intrusion, will businesses adapt? Or will privacy become a commodity to be sold back to customers? We explore the future of digital privacy through four distinct scenarios.
While they’re not an exhaustive list of all the possible future directions, the four scenarios below analyse pivotal trajectories that could shape the future of privacy in an increasingly digitalised world, providing a strategic lens for organisations to explore the diverse ways the future might unfold.
In our scenario-building process, we focused on the following set of key driving forces that will influence the future development of digital privacy:
Digitalisation
Data-driven business models
Privacy-first movements
Ethical standards to design and develop technologies
Value of privacy
Robust privacy regulations
In each scenario, we examine the different ways these drivers may evolve in the years ahead, as well as the different ways they may interact and influence each other. All four scenario descriptions also include a development timeline section, which lists three to six steps that could plausibly happen to move us closer to the given scenario. The purpose of this section is to give readers a list of signs and indicators to look out for when monitoring future developments.
Learn more about our scenario-building method here.
Scenario 1: Privacy-first technologies give people control back over their personal data
The tech landscape undergoes a notable shift as privacy takes centre stage. Collaborating with regulatory bodies, key players in the industry establish transparent privacy standards, ensuring that trust is at the forefront of new technological developments.
This momentum ushers in a more decentralised digital ecosystem and a new wave of privacy-first business models. Liberated from the grasp of third-party providers controlling their data, people now have more power over their personal information. This shift in control allows for a more personalised digital identity, where one can decide the extent of data they share across different platforms.
Striking this balance between user agency and service accessibility becomes a catalyst for more innovation as well as societal progress. The outcome is a digital landscape where privacy and trust aren’t mere buzzwords but fundamental principles steering technological development.
Development path for scenario 1
2025: Companies proactively anticipate and adapt to regulatory trends by incorporating robust privacy and information security standards.
2026: Consistent and transparent technology standards pave the way for more responsible and ethical development of digital products and services.
2027: Privacy regulations strike a balance between safeguarding consumer privacy and fostering innovation.
2028: As people gain more control over their data and standards become transparent, trust in tech companies increases, and consumers willingly share their personal data in accordance with their preferences.
2029: Emerging technologies like edge computing and blockchain pave the way for decentralised business models rooted in privacy-first principles.
2030: Advanced privacy-conscious systems allow people to easily monitor the processing of their personal information.
Scenario 2: The constant surveillance accelerates the erosion of privacy
In a globally interconnected environment where virtually everything is linked through billions of data-gathering touchpoints, tech corporations and governmental entities increasingly exploit people’s personal data for their own interests. The promised benefits of new technologies like IoT, AI, and 5G become overshadowed by the pervasive surveillance that infiltrates people’s everyday lives.
This results in an almost complete loss of privacy, traded off for the perceived benefits of convenience and efficiency. The unchecked surveillance of individual behaviour also creates a climate where dissent and civic engagement become increasingly stifled. Consequently, there is a striking absence of opposition or critique against this continuous surveillance.
The interconnected world, once envisioned as a realm of progress, now harbours shadows of compromise as personal autonomy diminishes, and democratic values face an escalating erosion.
Development path for scenario 2
2025: People increasingly prioritise the benefits of digitalisation over their privacy.
2028: With technology becoming more pervasive in the everyday built environment, obtaining consent for the use of personal data across every touchpoint becomes nearly impossible.
2030: The weaponisation of personal data against individuals, groups and the society at large becomes more prevalent.
2031: Without robust regulations, politicians continue to exploit people’s personal data to influence elections and policies.
2032: The global digital infrastructure evolves into the backbone of authoritarianism. The resulting loss of privacy is justified in the name of public security and efficiency.
Scenario 3: Privacy comes with a price tag, accessible only to those who can afford it
In the absence of commonly agreed ethical standards on data privacy, the level of data protection varies based on the gadgets, applications, and services people use. As public concerns about online privacy intensify and cultural movements such as social media-free living gain momentum, some tech companies are revisiting their policies on personal data collection to meet changing consumer demands. Some opt to limit sharing of personal data with third parties while still enabling targeted ads. Others take a more stringent approach, prohibiting advertisers from tracking users who upgrade to paid products and services.
This shift signals a trend where tech companies capitalise on people's desire for privacy, turning it into a marketable product. Ultimately, a person’s ability to afford privacy becomes a determining factor in their level of protection, widening socio-economic disparities. Those who can afford upgraded products and services gain high-level privacy protection, while others are left with inconsistent privacy standards and find themselves forced to compromise their personal data.
Development path for scenario 3
2025: Privacy regulations continue to advance globally, extending protection to more people. There are widespread efforts worldwide to let consumers regain control of their data.
2026: It becomes increasingly difficult to target advertisements using personal data. Meanwhile, tech companies continue to seek new strategies to sustain their lucrative digital ad businesses.
2028: Media publishers, app creators, and e-commerce sites innovate new business models to survive amidst the ever-evolving landscape of a privacy-conscious internet.
2030: The availability of privacy becomes unequal as different platforms adopt different approaches toward privacy, and many introduce privacy as a premium feature that customers need to pay for.
Scenario 4: A trade-off: Enhanced data privacy at the expense of an innovation slowdown
In the quest for heightened privacy, a paradox emerges: Strict regulations and a surge in new privacy-first business models inadvertently strain global connectedness and cooperation. Privacy and personal data processing laws rapidly proliferate across the world, yet they exist in isolation, forming a fragmented global regulatory landscape with varying standards in different countries.
The rapid evolution and intricate complexities of this global regulatory scene make it challenging for businesses to operate in multiple countries and navigate multiple jurisdictions. Eventually, these developments cast a shadow over the global digital innovation ecosystem, fracturing the interconnectedness that once defined it. In response, a shift towards local, decentralised digital spaces begins to take root, marking a new chapter in the history of the internet and global digital culture.
Development path for scenario 4
2025: Concerns about personal data and privacy protections intensify worldwide.
2027: Numerous countries, including developing nations where data privacy was previously unregulated, implement strict privacy regulations.
2028: Different privacy regulation models across the world make it challenging for multinational companies to operate globally, forcing them to further regionalise their business models.
2030: The imposition of overly strict standards on product designers and manufacturers, coupled with the complex global regulatory environment, stifles innovation.
