Rebuilding Ukraine: Four Future Scenarios
The cost of Ukraine's reconstruction stands at a staggering $486 billion—and climbs higher with each passing day. Timely decisions on investments, workforce, and resources will define the nation’s post-war recovery and long-term future.
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
The reconstruction of Ukraine stands as one of the most significant geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian challenges of our time. We outline four potential scenarios for Ukraine’s post-war recovery, shaped by the war’s outcome, regional dynamics, and the level of international support. Each scenario presents unique implications for governments, international organisations, private enterprises, and civil society.
While they’re not an exhaustive list of all the possible future directions, these scenarios analyse pivotal trajectories that will shape Ukraine’s reconstruction. They provide decision-makers with a strategic framework to navigate the diverse paths the future might take.
Our analysis is grounded in six key drivers that will influence Ukraine’s post-war future:
Extent of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure caused by Russia
The level of destruction directly affects the scale of reconstruction, shaping costs, timelines, and prioritization.
Return of refugees to Ukraine
The number and pace of returning refugees will influence the workforce, demographics, and ability to rebuild communities and economies.
Population shift from Eastern to Western Ukraine
Ongoing conflict and severe infrastructure damage in the East have driven migration to safer Western regions, resulting in regional imbalances that require tailored reconstruction strategies.
Ukrainians’ motivation and capacity for reconstruction
The collective drive and organisational ability of Ukrainians will be key to leading rebuilding efforts, especially at the grassroots level.
External help to finance reconstruction
The level and consistency of international support will determine the feasibility of large-scale projects and efforts to reduce regional disparities.
Ukraine’s capacity to protect its sovereignty
Securing borders and maintaining independence post-conflict will be critical to sustaining recovery and attracting investment.
Each scenario examines how these drivers might evolve and interact, providing insights into the potential paths for Ukraine’s recovery and future prosperity.
Learn more about our scenario-building method here.
SCENARIO 1
A divided Ukraine focuses on rebuilding the Western regions
The war ends with Ukraine ceding eastern territories to Russia, a difficult compromise that has secured sovereignty but left lasting challenges. Reconstruction is moving ahead rapidly in the Western and Central regions, fueled by substantial international aid and a population committed to contributing to rebuilding efforts. These areas are seeing new urban developments and a wave of entrepreneurial activity.
In contrast, Eastern Ukraine under Kyiv’s control is struggling. Depopulation, severed trade links with Russia and the resulting economic collapse have slowed progress and deepened the divide. Many displaced families have migrated westward, where targeted programs are helping them settle into new homes, jobs, and communities.
SCENARIO 2
Ukraine’s reconstruction stalls amid a frozen conflict
The war in Ukraine remains frozen, where neither side can achieve decisive victories. Sporadic attacks continue to disrupt daily life and deter rebuilding efforts in many areas. Resources and international aid are prioritised for sustaining the war effort, and external financial support declines as donor fatigue sets in.
In more stable regions, grassroots initiatives are making modest progress, repairing homes, schools, and critical infrastructure. Government subsidies and a sense of stability, even if fragile, have encouraged some Ukrainians to resettle in the East, though refugee returns remain limited. Despite the local progress, large-scale reconstruction remains on hold amid the unresolved conflict.
SCENARIO 3
Ukraine’s reconstruction falters under Russian control
The war ends with Russia annexing all of Ukraine, backed by strong support from China, Iran, and North Korea. The toll is devastating: 80% of Ukraine’s infrastructure lies in ruins. Under Russian control, reconstruction is limited to strategic areas that serve Moscow’s political and economic interests, often ignoring the needs of Ukrainians.
Workforce shortages deepen the crisis. A mass exodus of the working-age population has drastically reduced rebuilding capacity, while pollution and poor living conditions in Eastern Ukraine push many residents westward.
With no Western support and limited external investment, living conditions worsen. Widespread despair fuels guerrilla resistance, which grows more organised and challenges Russia’s fragile grip on the territory.
SCENARIO 4
Ukraine’s reconstruction moves ahead rapidly
A Ukrainian victory restores pre-war borders and sets the stage for rapid reconstruction. With substantial international support from allies such as the EU, the US, and Japan, combined with Russian reparations, Ukraine has transformed into a massive construction site. Refugees return en masse, filling workforce gaps and driving development across the nation.
Grassroots initiatives complement large-scale projects, rehabilitating the polluted Eastern regions and rebuilding infrastructure. The large-scale progress accelerates Ukraine’s integration with Western institutions, including the EU and NATO, and solidifies Ukraine’s path toward stability, security, and growth.
What will these scenarios mean for governments, policymakers, businesses, and the international community?
Discover the full implications in our report, launching January 2025, with detailed timelines, impacts, and actionable strategies.
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