The war in Ukraine, three years on: Which scenarios still stand?
In 2022, we outlined four possible futures for the war in Ukraine. Now, three years later, as new geopolitical realities emerge, it’s time to reassess which scenarios still hold and what the latest developments mean for Ukraine, Russia, and the West.
Dr. Tuomo Kuosa
Tuomo is co-founder and Director of Futures Research at Futures Platform. He holds a PhD from the Turku School of Economics and is an Associate Professor (Docent) of Strategic Foresight at the Finnish National Defence University.
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
In mid-2022, six months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we at Futures Platform developed four future scenarios outlining potential trajectories of the war. Now, as we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion, the war is at another inflection point. With the fallout from the 2025 Munich Security Conference and Washington’s retreat from its longstanding security commitments to Europe, it is time to assess how these scenarios have held up—and what the latest geopolitical shifts mean for Ukraine, Russia, and the West.
This piece assesses how the four war scenarios envisioned in 2022 have held up. Read the original scenarios here.
The key forces driving the war: Have they changed?
When we built these scenarios, we identified six primary forces that would shape the course of the war:
Russia's economic difficulties
Russia's political stability
Russia's capability to wage war
Ukraine's capability to wage war
Western help to Ukraine
Western sanctions against Russia
Almost three years later, these remain the dominant factors. However, what we perhaps underestimated in 2022 was the extent to which Russia would be able to adapt economically, despite severe Western sanctions. Similarly, we didn’t explicitly factor in Russia’s ability to gain support from non-Western allies, such as China, Iran, and North Korea, which has allowed Moscow to sustain its war machine far longer than many expected.
On the Western side, Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the resulting policy shifts are dramatically reshaping Ukraine’s support network. US commitment to Europe’s security is no longer guaranteed, as Trump signals a transactional approach to foreign aid, openly questioning NATO commitments, and engaging directly with Vladimir Putin. Alarmed by this shift, European leaders are debating whether they need to pursue a more independent military policy—a discussion that took centre stage at this year’s Munich Security Conference.
With these evolving dynamics in mind, let’s reassess the four scenarios we envisioned back in 2022.
SCENARIO 1
The Ukraine war becomes a frozen conflict
This was always one of the more plausible scenarios, and in many ways, it has largely come true, though with a crucial difference. The frontline in Ukraine has remained largely static since the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive and Russia’s grinding advances in 2024. However, unlike classic "frozen conflicts" (such as in Transnistria or South Ossetia), this war has not actually frozen; only the frontlines have.
With continued drone strikes and artillery shelling, Ukraine remains entirely mobilised for war, rather than transitioning into an uneasy ceasefire. Russia, for its part, has doubled down on an almost full-scale war economy, pouring resources into the conflict at an intensity many underestimated in 2022.
One key element from this scenario that did not materialize was Russia escalating conflicts in Kazakhstan and Georgia. While Moscow has exerted diplomatic and economic pressure on these former Soviet republics, it has been too preoccupied with Ukraine to open new fronts.
Verdict: Mostly accurate, but the war remains “hot” rather than truly “frozen.”
SCENARIO 2
Russia wins in Ukraine and continues expansion while China attacks Taiwan
This scenario assumed a full Russian military victory, followed by further aggression toward its neighbours and a parallel conflict in the Pacific. At the time, this was seen as a worst-case scenario. While Russia has certainly not "won" the war in the traditional sense, it has made slow but steady territorial gains, eroding Ukrainian defences over time.
China, meanwhile, has not made any military move on Taiwan despite growing regional tensions. The U.S. has continued to prioritise the Indo-Pacific over Europe, but the deterrence effect in Taiwan has held so far.
A key variable we linked to this scenario in 2022 was the return of Donald Trump to the White House and his potential reluctance to support European security efforts. While Trump’s second term has just begun, his early moves—including initiating peace talks with Russia without European involvement and floating demands that Ukraine hand over 50% of its critical minerals and infrastructure profits to the US as repayment for aid—suggest that a radical shift in Western support is highly plausible. While European leaders have reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine, they lack the industrial and financial capacity to fully replace U.S. support if it disappears.
Verdict: The long-term trajectory of this scenario remains uncertain, but elements of Russian expansion and Western withdrawal are becoming more plausible.
SCENARIO 3
The costs of the Ukraine war cause Russia to collapse internally
This scenario envisioned a future where Russia's war effort collapses under economic and political strain, leading to an intra-elite power struggle. While this hasn’t happened on a grand scale, it nearly did in June 2023, when Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group launched their short-lived rebellion against the Kremlin.
Since then, internal cracks within the Russian elite have been more carefully managed by Putin, with mass purges and increasing repression ensuring that opposition figures—both in the military and business circles—are kept in check. However, Russia's ability to sustain its economy despite sanctions has surprised many analysts.
Could this scenario still unfold? Possibly. If the war drags on for more years, internal dissatisfaction might grow. But for now, the Russian regime has remained more resilient than anticipated. Rather than suffering a full-scale breakdown, Russia has reoriented its economy to sustain the war, relying on parallel trade networks with China and Iran to circumvent sanctions.
Verdict: Russia is under strain, but internal collapse is not imminent.
SCENARIO 4
Russia wins in Ukraine but the West keeps it isolated and contained
This scenario assumed that even if Russia controlled key parts of Ukraine, Western nations would refuse to normalise relations, keeping Moscow economically and diplomatically isolated. That assumption is now being tested.
Today, this scenario remains possible but is at risk of unravelling. Trump’s shifting U.S. policies signal that Western unity may fracture, leading to a situation where Russia’s territorial gains are de facto accepted rather than actively challenged.
Europe, recognising this, has begun exploring more independent security measures—as seen in calls from the 2025 Munich Security Conference to build a European army that can function without American support
The effectiveness of Western containment now largely depends on Trump’s decisions in the coming months. If the U.S. signals that it’s willing to accept Russian territorial control in exchange for an end to the war, this scenario could break down entirely.
Verdict: Still plausible, but Western containment efforts are under serious strain.
Looking ahead: What’s next for the future of Ukraine?
As of February 2025, the war in Ukraine remains unresolved, but the shifting political landscape suggests that 2025 could be a decisive year. Trump’s foreign policy approach will determine whether Ukraine continues to receive vital military support or is pressured into a disadvantageous peace deal. Russia, having survived economic sanctions better than expected, may simply outlast Western patience, forcing Ukraine to negotiate on unfavourable terms.
In the meantime, Europe is reassessing its security future, recognising that it may need to act independently of the U.S. to contain Russia. Calls for a stronger EU-led military framework are growing, but whether that can translate into real capability remains to be seen.
Ultimately, none of our four original scenarios have played out exactly as envisioned—but each contains elements that remain highly relevant. The coming months will determine whether the war continues in a deadlock or takes a decisive turn. What is clear is that, as the world enters a new era of great power politics, Ukraine’s fate has become a measure of the resilience of the Western order itself.
NEW REPORT
Rebuilding Ukraine: Four Future Scenarios
Even though the war is ongoing, the work on rebuilding Ukraine and its post-war future cannot wait. Explore four possible scenarios of reconstruction with in-depth impact analysis and action points for stakeholders in our new report.
