GLOBAL IMPACTS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
KEY DISRUPTIONS AND LONG-LASTING CHANGE
As analysed by professional futurists
SHOCK WAVES AND LONG-TERM GLOBAL RECOVERY
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shock waves across the world. From geopolitics and cybersecurity to food chains, energy and world trade, the war has provoked sudden, disruptive shifts on a massive, global scale.
To help organisations navigate this difficult and uncertain time, our team of 10+ professional futurists have created an open-access foresight radar that charts how various trends and phenomena will be impacted by the war in Ukraine. You can find the radar, and instructions on how to use it, below on this page.
Our futurists are closely monitoring the situation and updating the radar with new analyses on the conflict and what it means for the global economy, societies, and politics. Read more about the making the analysis from this blog post.
The foresight radar is divided into four sections, each examining the war and its impacts based on their anticipated future directions. Read more about each radar section and related changes below.
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The first section of the radar examines the change trajectories that have been accelerated by the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, once the crisis subsides, these trends are likely to slow down and eventually return to their pre-war state.
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The war will trigger various short-term changes, which will be present at least for the duration of the conflict. The experienced impacts of these changes will become gradually stronger before their change momentum eventually slows down. However, these trends will likely never return to their pre-war state. Their importance will continue to remain on the level they’ve reached.
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This section of the radar analyses several long-term changes brought by the war, whose impacts will be felt for a very long time. Eventually, some of these changes may result in permanent societal shifts, prompting governments and businesses to rethink policies, defence strategies and business operations.
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This final section deals with the potential unintended consequences the war may bring, such as escalations of conflicts in other regions and large-scale shifts in the world geopolitical order.
Cover art: 3D illustration by vicnt.
FORESIGHT RADAR: GLOBAL IMPACTS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
For an optimal experience, open the radar on desktop and enter full screen. Then click individual phenomena and sector names to read the full analysis. On mobile, try landscape view.
HOW TO USE THE RADAR
Each circle on the radar represents a future phenomenon or trend. Phenomena are placed on the radar according to the anticipated nature and scale of change they’ll go through as a result of the war. When you click the titles of each radar section, it will open a summarised, big-picture analysis of the trends in that category.
Clicking on phenomena circles will open a trend card where you can find our futurists’ analyses on the individual phenomenon and its future impacts across various sectors. In some of the trend cards, you can also find two scenario descriptions that describe alternative future development paths for the given phenomenon.
Every card on Futures Platform’s foresight database is assigned a type according to its anticipated future development path. We categorise future changes into four types - Strengthening, Weakening, Wild Card and Weak Signal.
The phenomenon is becoming more common or acute during the given timeframe. Most of its change potential is still ahead.
The phenomenon is becoming more unusual. During the given timeframe, most of its change potential or value has already occurred.
A possible but not probable event or change. The probability within the given timeframe is between 5% to 30%.
A small emerging issue in the present. At the given timeframe, it is still hard to say whether it will become a trend.
A phenomenon whose importance has recently changed and our team of futurists has started to analyse it. The phenomenon type and the contents of the trend card are published once the full analysis has been completed and peer reviewed. Typically this takes a number of weeks.
NEW PUBLICATION
As part of our new publication series Futurist Review on Global Change, Futures Platform’s lead futurist Dr. Tuomo Kuosa analyses the war in Ukraine in the context of historical cycles of change, and discusses how it may mark the end of the current epoch cycle and cause an avalanche of sudden, major disruption at multiple societal dimensions in Europe – or alternatively trigger chain reactions around the world over a longer time span.
READ MORE ON OUR BLOG
MOVE FROM FRIGHTENED REACTIONS TO PROACTIVE PREPAREDNESS IN
CYBER SECURITY
Discover our add-on content package produced in collaboration with Cyberwatch Finland. Includes twenty exclusive analyses of key cyber phenomena and three additional foresight radars that bring together 60+ key phenomena in Cyber Warfare, Smart Cybercrime and Key Economic Impacts.
